A decade following the UK entered into a rushed referendum that split the nation and triggered disorder, a caution is issued from beyond the Irish Sea: it may occur once more.
The government and electorate sleepwalked into Brexit and the same might transpire with a national vote on a unified Ireland, triggering convulsions for which no one is ready.
That is the message from two prominent commentators from either side of the Irish border who have joined forces to scrutinise the pros and cons of Northern Ireland exiting the UK to form a new state with the Republic of Ireland.
Political Institutions Ill-Equipped
Fintan O’Toole and The Northern Ireland editor, have concluded that the government bodies in Ireland and Britain are gravely unprepared for a potentially fraught and transformative referendum.
"The lesson of Brexit remains unheeded, which is that stuff can emerge unexpectedly and can build support swiftly," the commentator said. "I would suggest that the governmental framework of our islands remains very unstable."
Book Publication Aims to Provoke Discussion
The team have analysed the governmental, economic and cultural arguments for any governmental shift in a publication, The Case For and Against Unification, issued by the Irish Royal Irish Academy.
They seek to stir debate on the topic with a series of lectures that will take them to Westminster soon.
"What troubles everyone, or should haunt everybody, is the Brexit vote of 2016," commented the analyst.
"We must avoid a national vote on a binary, vague proposition whose consequences have not been spelled out because then you end up with an extremely divided society where the losing side are not reconciled to defeat and the those successful are uncertain exactly what it is that they have achieved."
Legal Framework
Under the peace accord, the Northern Ireland secretary of state must arrange a referendum on Irish unification if it appears likely that a majority would support.
Sinn Féin and other pro-unification groups argue such a time is imminent, and a group named pro-unification advocates has rallied support, but both governments and pro-UK factions play down the prospect, leaving it unclear when or if there might be a referendum.
Absence of Informed Dialogue
Ideological statements for and against unity has masked the absence of serious debate, noted the journalist.
"Individuals are often for or against the notion but the detailed consideration which may surpass that to make it possible is mostly absent. Much has gone on in academia but hardly any politicians or advocates want to engage with even the essentials. For instance, which kind of country would you want? Centralised? Federal?"
Book's Approach
In the book, no writer supports unity or the status quo. They composes two pieces that aim for neutrality in laying out the argument for a unified Ireland and the case opposing it, gathering economic and societal data, historical precedents and constitutional models.
Discussions encompass identity markers, taxes, health services, retirement funds, national debt responsibilities and the danger of unionist unrest. The goal is to enlighten and stimulate discussion.
"There's huge interest in the subject but there hasn't quite been a dialogue," stated O’Toole. "Debate indicates an acknowledgement of the idea that there may exist reasonable perspectives on both sides."
Simultaneous Plebiscites
A public vote in Northern Ireland would simultaneously prompt one in the Republic of Ireland, where voters claim they favour unification but reject paying higher taxes or introducing a different emblem to recognise pro-UK communities' British identity.
"The Irish government does need to establish what the plan from nationalist groups is beyond just saying: 'We seek a united Ireland and we love you'," said the commentator.
Possibility of Public Vote
The journalist believes a national vote in his generation is likely and that it might occur abruptly. "There might be just a irresponsible or a ill-advised or a negligent secretary of state who says: 'We should proceed and settle the matter.'"
Each of the nationalists and unionists have reasonable, valid perspectives, he commented. "One side will prevail in this matter and the other side will eventually lose but each side has has something to gain from the other's positions."
Request for More Extensive Discussion
Westminster needed to participate in the discussion, urged the analyst. "This concerns the United Kingdom. It is a British issue equally as it is an Irish issue."
